The Real COVID Death Rate

Where did you learn that?

Unfortunately, I believe this pandemic has become a Machiavellian political issue. That is, those in power have commanded an opportunity to grab more control over society - aka, us little people.


Indeed, the virus can be deadly. However, those most impacted are people with high pre-existing risk of dying soon. Their deaths are tragic, for sure. But a true pandemic spares no one. This simple fact indicates that the lock-downs are unscientific..... and your personal risk of severe COVID symptoms or dying are actually quite low - less than the flu. And we haven't altered our society for the flu.


Here is an article in Medscape for Full Stanford Professor, John Ioannidis, for those of you interested in his view on the COVID science. He is the world's leader in determining science from hype in medicine.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/933977

Dr. Mercola sometimes goes over the top. I read his article of today and picked the key points that are factual rather than "conspiracy" focused. Here are some of his key finding.


Just How Deadly Is COVID-19?

According to groundbreaking data8 recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, only 6% of the total COVID-19-related deaths in the U.S. had COVID-19 listed as the sole cause of death on the death certificate.


Six percent of 169,044 (the total death toll as of September 2) is 10,143. “For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death,” the CDC states. As reported by Rochester First,9 the top underlying medical conditions included influenza, pneumonia, respiratory failure, high blood pressure, diabetes, dementia, heart problems and renal failure.


However, the list also includes 5,424 intentional and unintentional injury and poisoning deaths, so basically, accidents and suicides in which the individual just happened to test positive (or was suspected of being positive for SARS-CoV-2) are also included in the grand total.


(Please note, these data were accurate as of this writing. The CDC does not notate when data is altered as new death certificates come in, so the numbers may therefore be different from what is reported here, depending on when you’re looking at it. For the most up-to-date figures, see the CDC’s website.10)


The fact that only 6% of COVID-19-related deaths are directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 is bad news when you’re trying to keep a doomsday narrative going. In what appears to be a blatant attempt to minimize exposure of these data, social media platforms have censored many trying to share it.11


  • 8 CDC.gov August 26, 2020

  • 9 Rochester First August 31, 2020

  • 10 CDC.gov August 26, 2020, Updated September 2, 2020, Table 3

  • 11 WBKO.com August 31, 2020

Similar data have emerged from Palm Beach County, Florida, where an investigation by CBS 1212 I-Team revealed only 86 of the reported 658 COVID-19 deaths had “COVID-19 pneumonia” listed as the sole cause of death.


All others had multiple comorbidities, including diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and dementia. As noted by CBS 12, “Most Palm Beach County COVID deaths cannot be attributed to COVID alone.”


While Dr. Terry Adirim, senior associate dean at the Florida Atlantic University College of Medicine, told the I-Team that “it makes sense to count them [people with comorbid conditions] toward COVID deaths because the virus may have made an otherwise nonfatal illness like a heart condition deadly,” the converse argument can also be made.

Had it not been for them having one or more serious comorbidities, the risk of the virus to these individuals would have been minuscule, and if they got sick at all, they’d probably have survived. So, ultimately, should the virus bear the brunt of the blame?


Infection Fatality Rate on Par With the Flu

Keeping the “killer virus” narrative going much longer is probably going to become even more difficult in light of a September 2, 2020 article13 in Annals of Internal Medicine, which points out that:

“Because many cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are asymptomatic, generalizable data on the true number of persons infected are lacking, and that when calculating mortality rates from confirmed cases, you end up overestimating the infection fatality ratio (IFR).”

The paper reads, in part:14

“To calculate a true infection fatality ratio, population prevalence data are needed from large geographic areas where reliable death data also exist … We combined prevalence estimates from a statewide random sample with Indiana vital statistics data of confirmed COVID-19 deaths.
In brief, our stratified random sample consisted of state residents aged 12 years and older. Known decedents and incarcerated persons were excluded. Because nursing homes were limiting residents' ability to leave and re-enter the facilities, their participation was unlikely.
Participants were tested from 25 April to 29 April 2020 for active viral infection and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, which would indicate prior infection … We calculated the IFR by age, race, sex, and ethnicity on the basis of the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths as of 29 April 2020, divided by the number of infections.
Although nursing home residents were not tested, they represented 54.9% of Indiana's deaths. Thus, we excluded nursing home residents from all calculations (that is, deaths and infections).
To account for all infections, we added the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the testing period and noninstitutionalized COVID-19 deaths into the denominator …
Our random-sample study estimated 187 802 cumulative infections, to which 180 hospitalizations were added. The average age among all COVID-19 decedents was 76.9 years.
The overall noninstitutionalized infection fatality ratio was 0.26% … Persons younger than 40 years had an infection fatality ratio of 0.01%; those aged 60 or older had an infection fatality ratio of 1.71%. Whites had an infection fatality ratio of 0.18%; non-Whites had an infection fatality ratio of 0.59%.”

The estimated infection fatality rate for seasonal influenza listed in this paper is 0.8%. So, the only people for whom SARS-CoV-2 infection is more dangerous than influenza is those over the age of 60.


All others have a lower risk of dying from COVID-19 than they have of dying from the flu. Put another way, if you’re under the age of 60, your chances of dying from the flu is greater than your chance of dying from COVID-19.


White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx also confirmed this far lower than typically reported mortality rate when she, in mid-August 2020, stated that it “becomes more and more difficult” to get people to comply with mask rules “when people start to realize that 99% of us are going to be fine.”15


  • 12 CBS 12 July 27, 2020

  • 13, 14 Annals of Internal Medicine September 2, 2020 DOI: 10.7326/M20-5352

  • 15 Eldorado News-Times August 18, 2020

Maybe it's time to write to our governmental officials....


It's not too late to join the chronic disease support program. I'll send any newbies a link to past presentations....

https://www.healthrevivalpartners.com/cds


Stay Well


Thomas J. Lewis, Ph.D.



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