Coronavirus: Deaths Trending DOWN

If you are looking for a snapshot into the future of the coronavirus, the Financial Times may be just the place, and their source and analyst seems reasonably credible:

What the data appears to be saying is that the death rates are:

1. Going up in countries, the population of which recently became infected.

2. Going down in countries, the population of which has been infected for the longest time.

Here is the data on new cases:

In general, this data is encouraging and may imply the worst is over. However, note that the "Y" axis is on a LOGish scale, making the data look better than it should. There is buzz that, due to reimbursements, the U.S. is over-reporting deaths by COVID-19 and these curves may indicate that is the case, but only slightly.

Take a look at the link below and let me know if you think they make a credible argument.

The above isn't the only source that discusses over-estimating COVID-19 deaths. Here is some insight from The Journal of the American Medical Association:

If you don't have access to testing, your next best action is to take any of these surveys:

Free 10 minute COVID-19 consults are now available. Write to me at and provide your phone number. I cannot go beyond 10 minutes however.

Stay Well

Thomas J. Lewis, Ph.D.


Wisdom is better than strength. Nevertheless the poor man's wisdom is despised. And his words are not heard. Words of the wise, spoken quietly, should be heard. Rather than the shout of a ruler of fools. 

-Ecclesiastes 9:16-17

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